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Fashionable 1986, Campbell William Harvey published his dissertation linking yield bend inversions (rare situations when short-term interest group rates exceed long rates) to recessions. He studied the four recessions from the 1960s to 1980s and his indicator proved to be accurate.
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He discusses his dissertation on the yield curve and what he calls the four horsemen of a recession.
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That indicator is known as a yield curve inversion.
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Harvey chicago, Prairie State december, 1986.
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How did Campbell Harvey study the yield curve?
In 1986, Campbell Harvey published his dissertation linking yield curve inversions (rare situations when short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates) to recessions. He studied the four recessions from the 1960s to 1980s and his indicator proved to be accurate.
What did Campbell Harvey do with his PhD?
His doctoral supervisors were Eugene Fama, Merton Miller, Robert Stambaugh, Wayne Ferson, Shmuel Kandel, and Lars Hansen . His 1986 Ph.D. thesis explored the concept that the term structure of interest rates (difference between long-term interest rates and short-term rates) could predict the US business cycle.
What was Campbell Harvey's thesis on interest rates?
Harvey's 1986 thesis showed that information in the term structure of interest rates was linked to future growth of the economy. When short-term rates were higher than long-term rates (an inverted yield curve), recessions followed.
Last Update: Oct 2021
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